This futures search was first published in 1984. Our aim then was to map an alternative scenario to the Orwellian Big Brother end game. Mathematically systems subjected to an intergenerational change force, such as ever increasing technology over a century, can be expected to spiral to one of two opposite states not some middle ground. This is definitely the case for impacts on nature's systems and has been argued by alumni of both Adam Smith and Keynes to apply to purposes of markets as human relationship exchanges
Headline from Last Edition
2025 Good News/News –2020s most exciting time to be alive: We have all tech and human brains we need to prevent extinction if and only if these 3 systems exponential conflicts are sorted
3 systems in complete conflict
Money Men Systems
Human Development Economics
Nature Sustainability Economics
Put another way in 2020s there is 10 times more work that millennials need (deep learning) to be gravitating to thriving communities than banking on GNP can reach. So, a prime reason for last edition of 2025 report is to peoples as multilaterals 2.0 to web3/metaverse/DAO/NFT -all of which tech is making prime time to design now
============================
Findings actually come from over 7 decades of journalism (originated at Economist led by my father Norman) . In 1951 dad met Von Neumann and asked to continuously survey Humanity’s most valuable question – what goods will peoples do with 100 times more tech every decade?.
NB1 Von Neumann , Einstein and peers - maths' world GOATS - had spent most of their Lives on "bads" – eg nuclear arm race. They wanted their legacy to be the opposite
NB2 Neumann was not predicting availability of 100 times more tech to all (eg from 1965 you can track who got access to moore's law 100 fold multiplier: mainly peoples linkedin to the place that soon branded itsel Silicon Valley). So would those with privileged first access attend to "digital divide" solutions not just rich peoples hi-tech services
NB3 Neumann had particular definition of good=mapping/designing way above zero sum exchanges. This aligns closely with Adam Smith’s moral sentiments and Keynes last chapter of General Theory (whose last class at Cambridge dad attended)
A most vital good of human development economics (implied by UN’s birth) is including Communities had been left out by engines/engineers in live saving Knowhow networks
Overall Neumann's question and concerns had particular relevance to my father as he spent his last days as teenage navigator allied bomber command Burma
A generation ahead of other economists,dade had the good fortune to have (google) maps in his head of what a mess had been made by colonial ear to Asia's world trade coastlines,
Indeed we could say the majority of the human race as at 1945 had been left out of all the benefits of engines since 1760 - multiply two thirds of humans who are Asian by the approximately 80% without access to engines as of 1945. They had been left ut of Glasgow's Engine power since 1760, then of electricity then of the "tele" coms across borders which started in 1865 with the International Telegraph Union with western nations chosen to assemble regularly in Switzerland
Youth Generation best chance of applying 100 times more to sustainability goals and what was first called Digital Cooperation UN 2016 year 1 review NY UN HQ of why education sustainability goal need connections with tech , health, and trade all of whose Un experts hubbed out of Geneva. Since Engineer Guterres started his 10 year trem in 2017 this has become 9 interactive pieces of Digital Roadmapping UN2 and indeed benchmarking egov for good
JUSTIFICATION OF HEADLINE THAT 3 CONFLICTING SYSTEMS NEED MEDIATING (and references to alumni networks of world recordjobs.com which we started blogging after the subprime crisis of 2008 eg WRL Neumann Einstein Satoshi Gandhi Montessorri Borlaug ...)
During the 1950s, first decade of surveying 100 rimes more: two of the most positive reports from first decade of survey:
Kennedy announced decade long moon shot challenges as overall goal Energising ne(x)t gen
Father started annual surveys of what help did people need in different Nations- he was joyfully surprsied that his 1962 survey showed Japan was mapping two models relevant to Asian Peoples Development everywhere.
Rural Keynesianism – full rural employment – miraculously Borlaug alumni were open sourcing how villagers could locally produce up to 10 times more productivity with staples like rice. Up to half of Asians needed to app this knowhow (aka Green Revolution) to prevent starvation. In fact a billion Asian Tural mothers families linkedin around this franework between 1970 and 2020 - a revolution in aid and in population tersm the greatest economic miracle to date. See Footnote for more
Coastal tech cooperation- with something like a car’s 4000 parts instead of a company trying to manufacture every part, Deming suggested demanding continuous improvement from sme supply ntrworks. Containerisation suddenly made it far more economic for Japan Korea Taiwan to win-win trade- soon this etended down the far east coastlinve via hong kong and Singapore. My the mid 1970s the Chinese Diaspora were becoming win-win traders in hi-tech; the big deal was when Japan agreed to share all its engineering knowhow with Tsinghua in Beijing.
The simplest maps of Billaion Rural womens advancement in Tropical Asia comes from Bangladesh www,abedmooc.com
SHE-M*e*e*e
where S=designing communities where women are at least as productive & safe as men; H=last mile health networking solutions- fotunately innovated in the early 1970s: the biggest life saving cure in tropics oral rehydration had zero cost but needed 100% action learning by mothers. E= Education which is livelihood & accessible lifelong for students , teachers, community leaders cooperaing round urgent sustaiability challenges including data needed for tech apps
M=Money e =energy for fumans ie food & water security; e=energy for machines; e=digital cooperation
Father covered these stories 1951-1990 in the Economist many downloadable at http://www.teachforsdgs.com
No comments:
Post a Comment