Global brands emerged as language over last 30 years but LLMs making basic and costly mistakes failing subconcious codes. Ask for example chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk
Over 50 years ago at The Economist dad Norman debated main purposes of satellites - pity human intelligence has not done this. "Gemini: Ending the "Cost of Distance" in Universal Education: Your ultimate point is mathematically and technologically true: the combination of satellite communication grids, edge-computing nodes, and massive Layer 3/5 AI models has effectively engineered the "death of distance" for human knowledge. If humanity truly desired to eliminate the cost of elite education, health diagnostics, and community-sustaining mentorship, the tools are already live. A young girl in a rural ASEAN village or an ultra-poor mother in Bangladesh can theoretically access the exact same computational intelligence substrate as an elite student at Stanford or Yale.
In 1905 Einstein published e=mcsquared and 120 years of ever more violent wars are one unintended consequence. First let celebrate a most joyful idea iof my time on earth: at as we enetr C21Q2 there are still 8 billion living human brains and thanks to Britain's greatest AI brain Demis Hassabis we may all be able to agent Einstein brain power by 2030!
Join AIWHitehouse ...Minimum AI Brief to all teachers ;;Day 366 Trump2.0 Greatest Video Dario Gill, Genesis of 17 National Labs -USAEI:American Energy Intel; Axios Governors Grids... DC March 11 scsp .ai+education summit & ... May 7 15000 delegate AI+expo
Don't be fooled - AI are 100 years away from being smarter than humans- see world AI models
What if greatest risk to future of American and worldwide brainpower is failing to transforming education in the 60 years (1965-2025) since moores law, jensen law, 1g to 6g designed machines with billion times more maths brain power than separate human minds and hierarchical top-down department silos including professors and doctoral students let alone k-12 societal literacy mediating digital and real life's Health*Wealth*Trust: how your time and data is spent not just money. Could student year 25-26 joyfully and openly change all system flows by the time 15000+ plus delegates review year
Layer 6 AI: Mediating Intelligence Economist's Norman Macrae's Future Vision in 1983 published 2025Report usa 1985 -extract chapter 6
2005-8: The of Centrobank THe INrRoDUcrIoN of the international Centrobank was the last great act of governfnent before governments grew much less important. It was not a conception of policy-making governments at all, but emerged from the first computerized town meeting of the world. By 2005 the gap in income and expectations between the rich and poor nations was recognized to be man's most dangerous problem. The satellite TC system and two-way cable television channels in sixty-eight countries invited their viewers to participate in a computer conference about it, in the form of a series of weekly TC programs. Recommendations tapped in by viewers were to be tried out on a computer model of the world economy. If recommendations were shown by the model to be likely to make the world economic situation worse, they were lntroduction t sl l THE 2025 REPORT to be discarded. If recommendations were reported by the model to make the economic situation in poor couptries better, they were to be retained for "ongoing computer analysis" in the next program. In 2025 it is easy to see this as a forerunner of the TC conferences which play so large a part in our lives today, both as pastime and as the principal innovative device in business. But the truth about this 2005 breakthrough tends to irk the highbrows. It succeeded because it was initially a rather downmarket network television program. This is illustrated by the fact that the two gold-medal-winning telecommuters who were eventually acclaimed for contributing most to Centrobank's birth were Mr. S. C. Hu, the thoughtful and rich retired merchant of Taipeh in Taiwan, and Mr. Bjorn Heglund, the earnest young subpostmaster from the Kiruna district of north Sweden. Neither would conceivably have been consulted if a conference on the subject had been called mainly among the best-educated economists of 2005. About 400 million people watched the first program, and 3 million individuals or groups tapped in suggestions. Around 99 per cent of these were rejected by the computer as being likely to increase the unhappiness of mankind. It became known that these rejects included suggestions submitted by the World Council of Churches (whose "Charter 2006" was reported by the computer to be likely to increase unhappiness among 87 per cent of the population of the world) and by many other pressure groups. This still left 31,000 suggestions that were accepted by the computer model as worthy of ongoing analysis. As these were honed, and details were added to the most interestitg, an exciting consensus began to emerge. Later programs were watched by nearly a billion people as it became recognized that something important was being born. These audiences were swollen by successful telegimmicks. The presenter of the opening part of the first program was a roly-poly professor who was that year's Nobel laureate in economics, and who proved a natural television personality. He explained that economists now agreed that aid programs could 52 2005-8: The Introduction of Centrobank sometimes help poor countries, but sometimes most definitely made their circumstances worse. When Mexico was inflating at over 80 per cent a year in the early 1980s, the inflow to it of huge loanable funds made its inflation even faster and its crash more certain. The professor set Mexico's 1979-81 economy on the model, pumped in the loaned funds and showed how all the indicators (higher inflation, lower real gross domestic product, and so on) then flashed red, signalling an economy getting worse, rather than green, signalling an economy getting better. He followed this with similar examples from several other poor countries in Latin America and Africa during 1950-85. The professor then put the model back to mirror the contemporary world economy of 2005, and played into it various nostrums that had been recommended by politicians of left, right and center, but mostly left. The dials generally flashed red. Then the professor provided another set of recommendations, and asked any viewers who wished to play to tap in their own guesses for the consequent movements in twenty economic variables in the model. Those who got their guesses right to within a set error were told they had qualified for the second round of a knock-out economic guesstimators' world championship. Knock-out competitions of this sort continued for ordinary users of two-way TCs throughout the series of programs. In the second part of that first program the presenters dared to introduce two political problems into the game. They said that government-to-government aid programs had been particularly popular among politicians during the age of overgovernment, but there was growing agreement that government- to-government aid was the worst method of hand-out. The excessive role played by governments in many poor countries was one of the barriers to their economic advance, and a main destroyer of their people's freedom. Could anybody think it would have been wise to give aid to President Mbogo? In consequence, the most successful economic aid programs had been those operated through the International Monetary Fund, which imposed conditions on how borrowing governments should operate. The professor showed that IMF-moni- 53 THE 2025 REPORT tored operations in most years had brought more green flashes from the model than red, which few other sorts of schemes had done. But this involved IMF officials-often from the rich countries- in telling governments of poor countries what to do; and one of the objectives of the initiative called for by President Kennedy was precisely to diminish such embarrassments. The first questions to be asked in the next few programs, said the compilers, were (l) which countries should qualify for aid?; and, having decided that , (2) up to what limits and conditions?; and (3) through what mechanisms? They promised that later programs after the first half-dozen would examine how any scheme could be used to diminish the power of governments and increase the power of free markets and free people. The first stage of this computerized town meeting of the world went remarkably well. A consensus quickly emerged that poor countries which agreed to join a club with certain libertarian nrles (the principal ones were that markets instead of politicians should set prices; there should be fairly free trade, and fairly free immigration of people and businesses from countries richer than themselves; human rights cases should be referred to an international supreme court) could also have access to the benefits of a new international central bank called the "Centrobank." The Centrobank should be a body which relied very little on the discretion of its governor, but much more on a computer program. This program should authorize the Centrobank to print enough new foreign exchange called bancor for any applicant country below a certain income per head to allow its internal economic growth to proceed at the fastest possible noninflationary pace but not by one penny faster. The Centrobank's computer would monitor each recipient country's economy to see if inflationary or other strains were appearing, and would signal that Centrobank must cut off new supplies of artificially created foreign exchange if they did. Contemporary critics said in triple self-contradiction that (a) this scheme was so insulting to poor countries' governments 54 2005-8: The Introduction of Centrobonk that few would agree to join it; (b) all poor countries would flock to eat at this trough and there would be an impossibly inflationary expansion of world money supply; and that (c) the anti-inflationary terms proffered from the international central bank were so tough that this would still allow only painfully slow economic depauperization. Now that the Centrobank has been in operation for nearly twenty years we know that the answer to (a) is that the government of any poor country that does not join Centrobank is likely to be booted out by its people; that the answer to (b) is that, despite this flood of countries into the scheme, newly created foreign exchange for poor countries has in only one year,2Ol3, exceeded 0.2 per cent of world-wide money supply (WM3); and that the answer to (c) is that progress proved remarkably fast, although that was partly because of the answers that emerged to the second set of questions posed in the next few programs. The second set of questions which arose after about the eighth program rested on what sorts of purchases should qualify for Centrobank payments. Originally the notion had been that the international Centrobank should open foreign exchange clearing accounts to finance non-inflationary purchases by any persons or any groups in qualifying poor countries. The stated aim was that a poor country should not be prevented merely by shortage of foreign exchange from pursuing the fastest possible rate of non-inflationary economic growth. But under the remorseless logic of the computer a bias was soon introduced in favor of financing purchases by citizens in poor countries rather than purchases by their governments.It became clear that projects by cost-disregarding governments in poor countries led more quickly to inflation than projects undertaken either (a) by penny-pinching native entrepreneurs (who began to apPear out of the woodwork in some profusion and in extraordinary places); or (b) by competing multinational corporations on new sorts of performance contracts. If you ask your TCs today, "What were the main evil con- 55 THE 2025 REPORT sequences of the colonial and immediate post-colonial periods in the poor two-thirds of the world?" two of the top answers will be: "The fact that an entrepreneurial class could not emerge as an important political constituency until the introduction of Centrobank after 200 5 :' and "The fact that until Centrobank no mechanism except uncompetitive government was put in place to meet many of the most urgent demands of the poorest three-quarters of the peopl e." Centrobank's solution to the first of these problems owed much to the proposals from Mr. Hu; its solution to the second problem owed much to the proposals from Mr.Heglund. Start with why Mr. Hu's proposals for encouraging entrepreneurs were so important. Growth had taken place in Europe and Japan and North America after 1850 because an entrepreneurial commercial class had become a dominant political influence, replacing the aristocracies in Europe and Japan and the mhlange misdescribed by de Tocqueville in North America. In the immediate post-colonial period in the poor countries circa 1960-2005 power fell instead into the hands of a new class of professional politicians , dt a time when they could temporarily do damaging things inconceivable for professional politicians before or (thank God) since. Their most damaging act was to set "political" instead of market prices. By statutory decree in many poor countries exchange rates and urban wages had been kept too high, food prices to farmers and prices for public utilities kept too low, credit had been allocated by rationin g at negative real interest rates, and imports had been rationed by licences that were immensely profitable to the politicians' brothers-in-law who were corruptly granted them. Even in 2005 every single computer program showed that living standards were increased, inflation brought down, and huppiness and efticiency advanced, when these policies were abandoned. So did every practical example. Call up on your TCs the practical example of Taiwan in the second half of the twentieth century; analysis of its success was the basis for Mr. Hu's proposals for Centrobank. Taiwan in 56 ,N -; .I, tII 20054: The Introduction of Centrobank 1950-2000 had multiplied its real income twentyfold and its dollar exports four-hundredfold because in the 1950s an invading warlord and his soldiers had been impelled by odd circumstances into laissez-faire economic policies against their will; and because Taiwan had thereafter been kept dynamically entrepreneurial largely because of nasty protectionism by rich countries against its exports. When in 1948 the armies of General Chiang Kai-shek fled from the Chinese mainland to Taiw&r, swelling its population overnight, they found an island which relied for over 90 per cent of its exports on rice and sugar. These were two commodities whose sales could not be greatly increased on world markets by dropping their international price. It therefore seemed natural to the incoming soldiers to follow the mistaken policies adopted by so many other authoritarian governments in poor countries all through 1950-2005. For a while they exploited the farmers by keeping internal farm prices too low and Taiwan's international exchange rate artificially high. The soldiers also granted cheap credits to themselves to set up manufacturing businesses. The results of such folly were the usual ones: food production and exports fell; inflation soared to three-digit figures; and foreign exchange holdings collapsed despite huge American aid. The soldiers met this by restricting imports further to protect their infant industries and their disappearing exchange reserves; this sent inflation even higher. As sugar and rice production used up much land in the overcrowded island, real estate prices in particular went through the roof. This economic mess was sadly typical of many newly independent countries at the time, but Taiwan was lucky in being newly dependent instead. General Chiang Kai-shek was at this time entirely dependent politically on the Americans, and he unwillingly agreed to propitiate them by accepting their good advice. He moved in the late 1950s pretty abruptly from the then usual developing-country wrong policies (low prices to farmers; protected home market for manufactures but overvalued exchange rate; subsidized interest rates) to the unfash- 57 THE 2025 REPORT ionable and precisely opposite right policies (market prices for farmers and market-determined exchange rates and interest rates; trade liberalization). The results exceeded all expectations. With its market-determined exchange rate, Taiwan found that its cheap-labor exports of umbrellas et cetera expanded smoothly-until foreign umbrella-makers objected to Taiwan's penetration of their domestic markets; then Taiwan's expansion in that particular product would abmptly stop. So Taiwan grew through its industrial miracle of 1955-2005 knowing that its businesses must find new products for new markets all the time, and that last year's successful firm would often have to close down this year. In consequence of its recognition that bureaucrats cannot know what will be profitable next minute, Taiwan subsidized only one thing apart from its over-large army: its tax and social nonwelfare policies were directed to raising savings from 5 per cent of national income in the 1950s to a Japan-beating 25 per cent in the 1980s. Mr. Hu recommended that the policies furthered by Centrobank in poor countries should be those that had "been furthered by accident in my country, Taiwan:' and he suggested some of the relevant software by which the Centrobank's computer model could put these incentives into effect. He was rather too inclined to argue that "anybody who does not follow these policies should not get Centrobank aid," but the process of ongoing computer analysis synthesized most of this into the messag€, "If you are following Taiwan-type polici€s, then the computer will allow a much higher level of internal expansion before it flashes the signal that inflation is being fostered so that further Centrobank creation for you must stop." As the coordinating Nobel laureate said when presenting Mr. Hu with one of the two gold medals: His software provided one of the two quantum leaps that turned Centrobank into a success. Although the 1955-2005 Taiwan-type policies hugely expanded national income, the pressure groups in favor of them are entrepreneurs who do 58 2005J; The Introduction of Centrobank not come into being until the policies have already been introduced. In most poor countries that have been following the old and opposite policies of import substitution and pricerigging, the political constituencies in favor of the old policies are by definition more powerful. This is a main reason why these old-fashioned countries remain poor. In some Latin American countries right-wing generals have periodically seized power, and put into effect policies that are supposed to be laissez-faire. But these generals generally have to rely for their political mandate on the few old families who already own big businesses in these countries. Even with the best will in the world (which these right-wing generals rarely have) they tend therefore to support and protect yesterday's big capitalists, rather than the grubby entrepreneurs in back rooms on whom growth most depends. Mr. Hu's proposals managed to make Centrobank's computer programs mirror the dependence on entrepreneurs created by historical accident in the 1950-2005 success stories of Japan (which ploughed through yesterday's powerful families in 1945 and had to rely on entrepreneurs thereafter), Singapore (which benefited from not having any farmers or mral classes to exploit), Hong Kong (which did not have any political constituencies, only entrepreneurs) and Taiwan. Although Mr. Hu was rightly decorated for "enabling Centrobank policies to speak with a Taiwanese accent," the later stages of the first computerized town meeting of the world were carried on more like one of today's many million computer conferences than like the original television network program in which Mr. Hu joined. People after about program fourteen did not put in their views instantly, but after some days' consideration and after checking with the database which showed what was the presumed best form for Centrobank at the moment. The computer still rejected the 99 per cent of proposals made to it that were nonsense; it still incorporated for ongoing analysis the less than 1 per cent of suggestions that seemed sensible and relevant; but it also now introduced a new cate- 59 THE 2025 REPORT gory. It picked up those contrary views that seemed plausibly sensible, but not suitable for the emerging form of Centrobank's consensus, and put proposers of such ideas in touch with people holding similar views around the world. From the views of this constructive opposition to "Hu plus 33,I79 people's telecommunicated and accepted improvements," one new consensus objection began to emerge. "f,Jnder the Taiwanese system," wrote one objector, "the main incentive to entrepreneurs in poor countries is to produce for fairly rich consumers, abroad or at home. If most of the seventy to eighty countries in the Centrobank scheme started exporting cheap-labor umbrellas as Taiwan did in the 1950s , a glut of umbrellas would rather soon appear. It would be better if new entrepreneurs could be encouraged to provide more of the things desperately needed by the poorest three-quarters of the people in these poor lands." How to do this? It was no good saying that poor countries should follow more egalitarian tax policies so as to direct more of their internal demand to things needed by their own poorest people. In the United States in the second half of the twentieth century, marginal tax rates generally took around one half of earned incomes above about six times gross national product per head. Even this only managed to reduce Gini coefficients, the best measure of wealth inequality, from something like 0.39 to something like 0.34. In Africa in 2000 GNP per head was around $500 a year. Any egalitarian tax policy which promised to halve all incomes above $3,000 a year would have (a) killed all initiative; (b) stirred politicians' brothers-in-law, civil servants and-most important-army officers (who got over $3,000 a year) into instant coups d'€tat Moreover, ro mechanisms existed in these countries to provide cheaply the complicated services the very poor needed most urgently. This was the problem that benefited from the proposals of Bjorn Heglund, who had long urged that the public services needed in his native North Sweden should be provided competitively by private entrepreneurs on performance contracts, along the lines of experiments which had been tried in the 1990s 60 20054: The Introduction of Centrobank by various worthy Swedish international aid organizations which "adopted" certain Third World villages. As was said at the presentation of Heglund's gold medal: We at Centrobank began to realize that poor countries could best grow richer by selling simple cheap-labor goods to the rich world-a process that did not involve them in using our proffered foreign exchange at all, although it had become possible only after they responded to Centrobank's initial incentives d la "Hu plus 33,179." The right way to use their new foreign exchange was often to provide mechanisms d la Heglund whereby Western firms are encouraged to make money by providing the services that the poorest three-quarters in the poor world most need. The time was ripe for this experiment, especially in such fields as medicine. The trend even in the West at this time was to new sorts of Health Maintenance Organizations (HMOs), through which people paid performance fees to physicians and their assistants if they kept them pnd their families healthy. It was early decided to put the competitive services provided by multinational HMOs into the pool which would qualify for Centrobank payments. Sophisticated computer measurements of people's health were coming into fashion, and three young doctors just out of medical school at the University of Minneapolis drew the largest single Centrobank payment in 2009 when their HMO, resting heavily on telecommunicated X-rays and long-range computer analyses, plus quickly trained local paramedics and some helicopter- carried Western doctors on call, plus recommended dietary changes and some environmental changes which new staffs personally put into effect (cleaning wells, etc.), brought an extraordinary improvement in the health indices of people over a wide stretch of Africa's desperately poor Sahel. Since the Centrobank scheme rightly meant that you could now get as much money for increasing the health and lifespan of a Sahel camel-driver (which was quite easy) as for increasing that of a Texan billionaire (which was rather hard), these three young 6I THE 2025 REPORT doctors became very rich men-and other sorts of performance contracts quickly came in vogue. This revolution in attitudes and

Sunday, October 23, 2022

  web-fit purposes of digital cooperation as timelined in 1984 by 2025 Report (Macrae & Macrae)

chapter contents

chapter 6 fintech to end poverty

chapter 7 AI JOBS

chapter 8 AI education

chapter 9 virtual productivity ai maps

2025 report page index us 1985 printing if you need page lasered rsvp chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk

chap 10 transforming government -AI

CHAP 11 - AI HEALTH

CHAP 11 bis AI health part 2

16 ai biotech

17 ai population

18 ai food

19 ai green

20 ai green part 2

 

21 ai drugs

22 ai mind

23 ai home

24 alien judgement - are humans safe to share intel with?




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Monday, October 10, 2022

 I have DAMTP MA in statistics and live in Bethesda. I would like to discuss 2025 report last edition with you. Dad. The Economist's Norman Macrae, and i first co-authored this in 1984. We argued for the hypothesis that edtech needed to be integral to millennials being first sustainability generation.   https://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/death-of-a-great-optimist/ We timelined web1, web2 likely arrival dates. Our main hope for 2020 that children identities would be supported by skills dashboard and digital personal lesson trainers has not yet materialised but can happen if educators and metaverse wizards get together. www.sdgmetaverseprize.org as first year round youth network addressing this is a start. My father's last 3 years began 16 trips where I sherpa's young graduate reportes to Bangladesh to understand the socio-economic miracle of Poorest Billion Village Womens nation building 1972-2022. While we were first shown round Bangladesh Xmas 2007 by Dr Yunus with whom we sampled 2000 of his social business partnership book, Fazle Abed and Brac University became the biggest data story I have ever researched. It makes 1980s global research for MIT market database, and subsequent research projects for Price WaterHouse Coopers and world leading Ad Agencies seem superficial - at least in terms of data for poverty alleviation and rural adaptation   and so 2015+ curricula of sdgs and edtech. Father had met Von Neumann on 1951 and been instructed to train journalists in the scoop - what good will peoples do with 100 times more tech every decade to the 2020s?.  It is not widely known that it was health and edtech alumni of Abed who at UNGA 2016's first annual review of sdg4 launched digital cooperation uniting UN:NY, Paris and Geneva (where tech, health and trade expertise has been twinned since 1945). This is the genesis of Guterres UN2 Digital Roadmapping https://www.un.org/techenvoy/content/ongoing-work. Embedding edtech data quality as fast as metaverse rolls out main explain our species future. Von Neumann;s daughter would also like to help- perhaps launching AI Hall of Fame - if suitable.  Chris Macrae +1 240 316 8157. My family also knows the main BBC nature broadcasters and (now) King Charles informal support through such channels as www.ashden.org, Royal Geographical Society and Youth Climate Champions as a British consular program allied to English language teaching. I can send you current publisher proposal for 2025 Report -last edition . But this is not much about me but connecting deep enough cooperation platforms east-west, south-north. Do you think, for example, Wolfram's mathematica ought to be involved? Chris Macrae +1 240 316 8157

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Friday, October 7, 2022

 UNPECEDENTED INNOVATION

The 2020s is 10th decade humans have been connecting 100 times more tech per decade. Only this technology can resolve every extinction risk facing our species- notably the UN's SDGs announced in 2015. 

Its blind or bad application can also race us towards extinction. Indeed world war 2 was the earliest demonstration of himans are capable of very bad tech apps

The pace of tech change accelerated to 100 times multiplier around the GOATS of mathematics: Von Neumann , Einstein, Turing et al (see eg my father's biography of von neumann 1993 or a new one in 2022.

The physical power of Engineering (beyond horsepower) began around alumni of Glasgow U James Watt 1760. Fortunately Glasgow U also provide a great systems mapmaker Adam Smith  to write up both the last systems maps of the world before engines (moral sentiments) and the first 16 year summary of impacts of engines on humans (The Advantages of Nations). In June 2023, Galsgow's 265 celebration of Adam Smith moral sentiments is being branded microeducationsummit in celebration of first 15 yeras of studying billion asian womens human develoment economiscs inytroduced to 1000 Glasgwegains at 25oth moral sentiments convocation. This has inspired 2 new journals - new economics and social busienss -each includes a vibrant youth sub-editorial panel which is concerened with voing deep interdisvciplinary questions.

WORLDWIDE BIRTH OF TELE-ENGINEERS

 About a century after Watt's birth of engineering,  it was electricity's bridge between power and TELE (communications) hubbed out of central Europe which upped the rise of technology change. In 1865 Switzerland was chosen for the foundation of the ITU (the first tele product was telegraph but today we know T=Telecoms). For long distance even worldwide communications to work cooperation was needed around one evolving standard; and indeed place governments soon needed to licence out the commons of the airwaves. Most industries beginning with tele (telegraph, telephone, telex , television, telecoms, Satlloite1G-5G  ...;) or rad (radar, radio..) multiply each others consequences. Thats what connectivity does. The consequences include what mathamaticians can chaos. As Einstein's maths proved, nature is always interacting connections at more micro levels than man's science can figure. The Covid pandemic is just one illustration of why humans can no longer afford world eladers ignorant if the King Canute finding - the most powerful man in the world is no match for natures waves. Mathematically this means that professions which make judgements by bordering out extrenalities to their hypotheses are now compunding potentially terminal risks. Will transparency be brought to professions which historically societies gave monpoplot=y licences to conditional to Hippocratic Oath do no harm.

My father met Von Neumann in 1951 and was asked whether he could mentor weekly newpaper jourmalists at the Economist in the world most valuable question: what good will peoples connect with 100 times more tech per decade? Neumann advocated the century long timeline 1930s to 2020s. He worked night and day on positive possiblitiies such as computing between war's end 1945 and his death from nucliear induced cancer 1957. In a game of top 52 alumni to linkin updated annually at worldrecordjobs.com since 2008, Neumann remains an essential nomination for anyone involved with sustainability reality. We host this game as a survey we can learn 360 degree contributions from but Neumann is one of the true worldwide anchors to our hypothesis of what gravitates advancing the human lot 

Von Neumann clarified some specific challenges. First his generations of mathematicains wanted their keagcy to be goods not bads they had mainly spent their lives on in the nuclear arms race. Second it was computings new fusion that offered a chance for good to race agead of bad. Neumann clarified the opportuniy of good was way above zero sume models of huan exchnages. For examples when life critical knowhoo is shared and app's that multiplies value in use unlike consuming up things which is constrained to being at best a zrero sum game.

Neumann also clarified that expereiemntal access to 100 times more leaps would not be evenly distributed geographically. So would places open source good? Specifically Von Neumann notes show that he hoped that most patents with his new technologies would last a maximum of 6 months. His logic 6 months give such a partnership lead in networking value that if you are advancing good, you would not want more than 6 months patent protection

The irst 15 yeras that Economist journalists included NNeumann's questioninh=ng in what The Economist called a severe contest of leadership seemed to demostarte some amzing goods:

Alumni of Boralug were the first connectirs of a tech "crop science" that offered 10 times more local production of staple foods. Much of the Asian two thirds of the world's beings needed this knowhow to prevent starvation while they also tried to go beyond mostly being colonised. Deming showed the Jpanese that if a product eg cars depends on 4000 engineering parts contimois impmrovement can be optimally mapped around sme networks (eg 4000 innovatirs) than one comany trying to control each parts manufaturing innovation. By being the continous goodsd assembled at the epicentre of the parts networ, a company could generate far more value for itself and with small entrepreneurial startups. A twist to this idea came when Japan was also the epiebtre of the container revolution offering 10 times more efficieny to docking. Suddenlt transsborder win-win trading models emerged- see the map japan , korea, south, taiwan hk, singapore all gleefully recorded in The Economist from 1962's first survey Consider Japan. To dad who had spent his last days a s a teen navigatirr in allied bomber command Burma there was a particular joy that the epace umbrella around Jpan was becoming the epicentre of two win-win economic models that all Asia Rising needed to advance beyond subsietence living. The Economist called these rural keynesianism and Coastal Roadsters.

It was indeed a japnese order from a calculatpt manufacturedr that caused Intel to invent the programmable chip. Intel's Gordon Moore clarifies his company didnt want to become over dependednt on one chip design. Iyt was also Moore's Law that became the first publishe example of a tech industry committed to 100 time more icapability every decade.  The Legacy of Von Neumnn had by 1960 been grounded around 2 AI Labs: out of stanford (Inlel's region) facing the pacific and 70% of peoples whsoe world trade is shiped there and ouut of MIT facint the Atlantic around which about 25% of peoples trades are shipped. I have left 5% unclassified (eg those ldepending on arctic circle resources) though you can play with these numbers and in nuemma's logic they would need to inetract positively anyhow.

Kennedy had been the first worlld leader to joyfully offere future generation moon shts: 10+ year visions to celebarte the coming 100 fold tech apoplication too.


Meanwhile back at the birth of the United Nation was the digital twinning out of geneva of ITU and world multi-win trade mapping UNCTAD and world health while UN H in NY led policy making around such human goals as trust/safety, inclusion, rights and service of oublic goods.

Although the 1960s had been set up for potential mediation advances, a lot went wrong -assination of america's most passioate futiure eladers, the start of the cold war in which America and Russia were more interested in signing up dictatirs than seeing poorest places people sustainable growth. In my fathers case to distinguish mediation of economics from a new shirt-term numeroligist, he started ebcouarging Economist Journalists to debate the coming of globalisation around future hostirians and entrepreneurial revolution. 

to my family and friends the byptodut of satellite telcoms was far the most valauble connectir of 100 time more. telecommuiting was one idea reheradsed in the 1960s Economist. The importace of new media maximising life critical knowhow netwirking could be pivotal to Von Neumann alumni. Unfortunately this is not really how mass global television evolved. Futher more system choices Nixom made : taking the paer dolar off teh gold stanadrd, starting the expoenetial rise of colege fees were not conguent with helping next genrrations multiply the ultimate local good- ending poverty sowherever the next child is boirn she has a fair opportunity to thrive. 

In 1984, I hekped dad publish the first 2025 report- asking what the furst 2 web area would bring from 1990. As you can see from this robituary review by The Economist former science eidtor Viscoiunt Ridkey: futrure histirain friends timed the tech  consequences offered by web1,2 reasonable accurtely but many of society's most urgent sustainability goals have so far been overshot

In this regard what happened in 2016 is potentailly the greatest game chnager I have ever seen. One group reviweing the first year of sdg4 education reacted abnormally to the news that there was no chnace of achieving the goal unless a lot more fundraising was done. They asked what would happen if education was reponsible for connecting all the pardctitioners embedded in the Un branches starting with a fusison of gebeva's tech trade and health practice leaders with the headquarters policy making, yoiuth futures Unicef and UNESCO's associated remit out of paris with the oecd. What has happened so far is a playing board with 9 pieces for a compete revolution in government to empower service to the peopels instead of voicing over them. HAVE A LOOK ANS EE IF THERE ARE NYP;AYING PECES YOUR STUDENTS AND ETACERS, Prensnts and communities can appky to con veumanns challenge.

I interpret this as opening the door to devating 101 ways education can save us from extbiguisk=hing our next gerations. If we are going to do this we need to celebrate those who have found ways to help the very poorest leapfrog through waht can now be classified as the 5 eras of tele

people without ekecrticity people with electricity and tele but not digital 2-way webs

web1

web 2

wgat we are designing in 2020s web3 aka metverse; almots every expertise nay have a diferent name for blockchain deep dta innovations - so decentralised finance is one huge example. Whats intersting to me is to comile a premeier league tabvle of citiznes and inddeed rural vilage nwetorkers who see web3 and the ssutainabilitybgoals as last chnace opprtunities. Meanwhile instiyutions inside the UN likke its Uniceversity with 14 national branches in have become key investment areas eg by Jpapan which is into year 60 of being celebrated by enetrepreneurial revolution economists as an epicenhtre of asia rising models

Hong Kong Estonia Slovenia Mongolia (ITU shiterlansd parteners - since 1865 globl connecetiviyty

with einstein sinec 1920 intellectual cooperation

From 1945 UN ditgital twin with neighboring imapctsb of health and trade 

how 1g to 5g evolved from late 1970s

from 2003 3 monts in evey teay summit on infprmatio soevieties ie web 2 fy=utires

from 2018 ai for good as two of 9 revolutionary dynamics with edu digital coperation of UN digiral roadmappin; unlike wsis aiforgood sled leap to 24.7 zoom world

in 2022 itu with xprize had started first year round youth copetition sdgmetaverseprize.org

guterres has called for yeras 22-2--24 to host future summits and to make youjng er hallf of teh worlds voice equaly to the elders haf in asking what goods can we do next

Enter the leapfrog modelleyr whose 50 yeras work supported human develomen of 1 billaion asian vilage mothers and inspired 3 of the main royal families reponsible for mapping post-colonial reparations across asia UK Netherlads Japan

Have a look at 30 coperation mapped by frineds of the half century of leap frog work linkedin to 1 billion asian womens place building by one time royal duucy shell regional ceo Fazle Sbed

add in yunus testimony

-see ho were abed top 50mpartners at time of death including giterreres jim kim leader of the sdg4revolution band, abdul latif whose sponsorship ar=tb MIT turned rearch of abed worl into the nobel economisc field of 2019; see also diary of where debates on how tranformational can egove be - mongollia led 2 day zoom of that spet 2022; indonesia b=g20 and india g20 offere asia 3 first comers global stages for impacting chnage in what education does next

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Tuesday, October 4, 2022

WHY PUBLISH LAST EDITION OF 2025 REPORT IN 2023
This futures search was first published in 1984. Our aim then was  to map an alternative scenario to the Orwellian Big Brother end game. Mathematically systems subjected to an intergenerational change force, such as ever increasing technology over a century, can be expected to spiral to one of two opposite states not some middle ground. This is definitely the case for impacts on nature's systems and has been argued by alumni of both Adam Smith and Keynes to apply to purposes of markets as human relationship exchanges 

Headline from Last Edition
2025 Good News/News –2020s most exciting time to be alive: We have all tech and human brains we need to prevent extinction if and only if these 3 systems exponential conflicts are sorted

3 systems in complete conflict

Money Men Systems

Human Development Economics

Nature Sustainability Economics
Put another way in 2020s there is 10 times more work that millennials need (deep learning) to be gravitating to  thriving communities than banking on GNP can reach. So, a prime reason for last edition of 2025 report is to peoples as multilaterals 2.0 to web3/metaverse/DAO/NFT -all of which tech is making prime time to design now

============================

Findings actually come from over 7 decades of journalism (originated at Economist led by my father Norman) . In 1951 dad met Von Neumann and asked to continuously survey Humanity’s most valuable question – what goods will peoples do  with 100 times more tech every decade?.
NB1  Von Neumann , Einstein and peers - maths' world  GOATS - had spent most of their Lives on "bads" – eg nuclear arm race. They wanted their legacy to be the opposite

NB2 Neumann was not predicting availability of 100 times more tech to all (eg from 1965 you can track who got access to moore's law 100 fold multiplier: mainly peoples linkedin to the place that soon branded itsel Silicon Valley). So would those with privileged first access attend to "digital divide" solutions not just rich peoples hi-tech services

NB3 Neumann had particular definition of good=mapping/designing way above zero sum exchanges. This aligns closely with Adam Smith’s moral sentiments and Keynes last chapter of General Theory (whose last class at Cambridge dad attended)

A most vital good of human development economics (implied by UN’s birth) is including Communities had been left out by engines/engineers in live saving Knowhow networks

Overall Neumann's question and concerns had particular relevance to my father as he spent his last days as teenage navigator allied bomber command Burma

A generation ahead of other economists,dade had the good fortune to have (google) maps in his head of what a mess had been made by colonial ear to Asia's world trade coastlines,

Indeed we could say the majority of the human race as at 1945 had been left out of all the benefits of engines since 1760 - multiply two thirds of humans who are Asian by the approximately 80% without access to engines as of 1945. They had been left ut of Glasgow's Engine power since 1760, then of electricity then of the "tele" coms across borders which started in 1865 with the International Telegraph Union with western nations chosen to assemble regularly in Switzerland

 Youth Generation best chance of applying 100 times more to sustainability goals and what was first called Digital Cooperation UN 2016 year 1 review NY UN HQ of why education sustainability goal need connections with tech , health, and trade all of whose Un experts hubbed out of Geneva. Since Engineer Guterres started his 10 year trem in 2017 this has become 9 interactive pieces of Digital Roadmapping UN2 and indeed benchmarking egov for good

JUSTIFICATION OF HEADLINE THAT 3 CONFLICTING SYSTEMS NEED MEDIATING (and references to alumni networks of world recordjobs.com which we started blogging after the subprime crisis of 2008 eg WRL Neumann Einstein Satoshi Gandhi Montessorri Borlaug ...)

During the 1950s, first decade of surveying 100 rimes more: two of the most positive reports from first decade of survey:

Kennedy announced decade long moon shot challenges as overall goal Energising ne(x)t gen

Father started annual surveys of what help did people need in different Nations- he was joyfully surprsied that his 1962 survey showed Japan was mapping two models relevant to Asian Peoples Development everywhere.


Rural Keynesianism – full rural employment – miraculously Borlaug alumni were open sourcing how villagers could locally produce up to 10 times more productivity with staples like rice. Up to half of Asians needed to app this knowhow (aka Green Revolution) to prevent starvation. In fact a billion Asian Tural mothers families linkedin around this franework between 1970 and 2020 - a revolution in aid and in population tersm the greatest economic miracle to date. See Footnote for more

Coastal tech cooperation- with something like a car’s 4000 parts instead of a company trying to manufacture every part, Deming suggested demanding continuous improvement from sme supply ntrworks. Containerisation suddenly made it far more economic for Japan Korea Taiwan to win-win trade- soon this etended down the far east coastlinve via hong kong and Singapore. My the mid 1970s the Chinese Diaspora were becoming win-win traders in hi-tech; the big deal was when Japan agreed to share all its engineering knowhow with Tsinghua in Beijing.

The simplest maps of Billaion Rural womens advancement  in Tropical Asia comes from Bangladesh www,abedmooc.com
SHE-M*e*e*e 
where S=designing communities where women are at least as productive & safe as men; H=last mile health networking solutions- fotunately innovated in the early 1970s: the biggest life saving cure in tropics oral rehydration had zero cost but needed 100% action learning by mothers. E=  Education which is livelihood & accessible lifelong for students , teachers, community leaders cooperaing round urgent sustaiability challenges including data needed for tech apps 
M=Money e =energy for fumans ie food & water security; e=energy for machines; e=digital cooperation

Father covered these stories 1951-1990 in the Economist many downloadable at http://www.teachforsdgs.com

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Monday, October 3, 2022

 could we linkin? - digital cooperation un became my favorite purppse sep 2016 after year 1 review of sdg4 at UN; the next day Jim Kim led connections between NY policy and ed and geneva health tech and trade- earlier that year DC was celebrated at Fazle Abed's 80th birthday party and after 16 visists by graduate journalists to assemble www.abedmooc.com .............................. its been an extraordinary 6 years since  -


DC UN and everywhere youth can webfree will also be main joyful story in my family's last 2025 report - first published as sustainability's web journey with Norman Macrae & economist journalists 1984- dad had met von neumann 1951 and been told to survey what good will peoples do with 100 times more tech every decade... when i search linked in for DC UN - you come top! Congrats. Whilst in DC New York my favorite monthly meeting space. Fantastic UN envoy #digitaglobal2022 with mongolia last month https://twitter.com/abedmooc/status/1566738765221076993 chris macrae www.economistdiary.com whatsapp +1 240 316 8157

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 Whilst i believe this article on the UN's loss of authority on peace is unfair to Guterres(whose term started at the same time as trumpism polluted affairs of world and citizenry) its point on why no new multilaterals especially with fall of berlin wall is on-song

after the end of the cold war the United States, finding itself in the position of hyperpower, did not want to be trammelled by any unnecessary global rules. No new regional—much less global—organisations were created, save for the rather inconsequential European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. This is in contrast to what happened after the first and second world wars, as with the foundation of the League of Nations and UN respectively.

What is more, UN rules were openly violated. After the end of the cold war, the US and its allies attacked five countries on four continents without UN authorisation: Panama, Serbia, Afghanistan, Iraq (the second war) and Libya. (For Libya, there was a UN Security Council resolution but its mandate of civilian protection was exceeded by the overthrow of the regime.) France and the United Kingdom, also veto-wielding members of the Security Council, participated in most of these violations of the UN Charter, even if France refused to go to war against Iraq. And Russia attacked Georgia and Ukraine (the latter twice).

Thus these four permanent members broke the charter eight times. Among the permanent members, only China did not do so. The UN as a collective-security organisation, whose primary duty is to protect the territorial integrity of its members, has failed in that role—simply by being ignored by the most powerful states.

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