Saturday, December 4, 2021

 jottings on a very strange year 2021 has been - is your review of year or 21st C century equally weord - i am at chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk if you see how we can learn from each other

2025 report what happened to humanity - STORY ENDING 2021 whats next?

first published economist 1984 summarising first 140  years of economist "entrepreneurial revolution" mediation of adam smith moral engineering blended with human sentiments- the economist was founded round editing sdg1,2 with queen victoria to turn (anglo-dutch) empire to commonwealth which billion asian rural keynesian /abedian women economistwomen.com join in women's 36 happiest collabs in sustainability generation did on ground 2020-1970 (the purpose of the first 100 university collaborations vincent presides over and at one time soros wanted to be new york and budapest hubs of but which eg hong kong's yidan is now closest to - latest update 1.30am sunday east coast time http://www.yidanprize.org )


the birth of un 1945 was humanity's second last chance just as winter2021 (or perhaps guterres summit future 2023) is our very last chance

By 1955 John Von Neuman had tidied up the great maths of first half of 20th c into 100 times more tech per decade. Gordon Moore alumni clarified silicon chips would be the engineering form of that 100 time more per decade from 1965.- see eg my fathers bio of von neumann

For inter-generations to be sustainable during neumann's era of extreme change (manmade orgs now rivaling natures scale) we the peoples out of every community needed 
community tech applied to the top 5 sustainability goals finance food/water health education 100% inclusive-productive community
and the 3x change forces 
*go green 
*connect commons infrastructures 
*humanise artificial intel (ie convergence of all industrial rev 3 tech into ir4 which involves local data up integration from every GPS into real-time governance/transparency

we needed to remap win-win trade routes east-west : asia europe america and south-north: southern hemisphere: tropical north; mid north ;arctic circle - there is complete mismatch between population density and natural resource density at least in  carbon world and its paper money world

geographical diffusion,:Neumann open sourced first knowhow of 100 times more tech including brain science - ny-yale-boston mit (ai lab1) -stanford (ai lab2) ;japanese engineers had applied  the greatest engineering leaps to transform villages and supercities 1945-1965 selected coastal connections from north to south japan to singapore : these first leaps in human tech had connected japan korea south taiwan - all  asia 65% of people rising by 1965- it was a huge order from a japanese calculator manufacturer that led intel to design the programmable chip and from 1972 rebranding of silicon valley

humans needed investments in silicon valleys and japanese coastal belt supercities everywhere - and population sustainability needed to safely map exchanges across  the pacific coastal belt not the atlantic belt (ethnic origin 15% of mainly white peoples) needed connecting - we needed open flows of both silicon valleys and sme-supply chains coastal belts everywhere

one of the reasons americans as peoples/communities got excluded from coastal trades was 1913 law only american ships connect trade around usa and the accident that baltimore is a one way port blocking direct north east to central east coast states- so in spite of 80% of world trade being shipped usa configured roads for autos and planes instead of supercities trains and containerised shipping (how tokyo first leapt forward in design sme supply chains)

from 1945 we needed multilateral orgs eg un , world bank to connect east west triad eg ASUN EUN AMUN as well as south tropical mid north "arctic circle" un mapping so all peoples could win-win trade not just thing consumption but life critical knowhow apps which can multiply value in use! 
by 1965 americans needed to unite naval power under japan korea south taiwan un umbrella before these places usa  and asean engaged china
similarly once germany had been married into the eu americans needed to morph their military power with the eu before fall or berlin wall or collapse of med sea borders
americans  needed to sort out their own coastal trade shipping (land locked states need as much compound risk foresight as landlocked nations)

once this had been done americans 4% of humans needed to focus on new world's continent south north as well east west coast integration; continent about 12% humans while somehow climactically the old world needed to integrate south north for its 85%+ peoples 

when we say needed we mean nature needed humans to unite in these ways to be evolutionary smart instead of extinction prone

we can think of neumanns 1955 gift as starting up industrial rev3 and 4 just as glasgow started up machine age industrial rev 1,2 from 1760 
industrial rev 3 can be valuetrue defined as all multi-win models (replacing zero-sum) needed to map human relationship exchanges round today's younger half of world as first sustainability generation  (described above) - a massive integration challenge - the good and bad news of facing extinction is about the world biggest maths error - correct that in time to prevent extinction -when you model multipliers of exponentials I dont believe recalibrating above 1.5 degree is safe - somewhere a little above 2 - parts of the world may go up 6 degrees within 20 years - blah blah blah  (nobody can prove what number is the safe upper limit but you can see most of those controlling biggest organisations dont audit exponential multipliers -this is a professional problem and why we needed at least as many youth studying the opposite of mba) 

the industrial rev 4 needed to feed this deeply local data into and AI ie where machine analytic capacity took over autonomous real-time governance of op systems -in 2005 prioritising pandemic flow modeling could have been a better first priority than autonomous driving - silicon valley needs to explain how it messed up such priorities- another crossroads that went wrong why in 1995 did we let commerce drown out knowledge webs instead of identifying 2 different sorts of webs : leaning can be a multi-win game - western advertising cannot be - another error why does the west coast celebrate founders with exit strategies - the one thing the industrial age in usa got right was founders aimed to be lifelong purposeful builders

arts musics sports fsahions are one of youths currencies (youth need lives matter celebrities - can the naomi osaka and chiense female tennis player be lifelong community grounded heroines rather than nike's image channel)  

but probably most urgent of all we to fix intergeneration currencies eg the 300 trillion dollars western pension money still investiing in exact opposites to ll these sdg directions -neumanns 70 year gift always depended on3 generations trusted investment in each other todays 1) younger half under 30s , peak impacts of parents, grand parents

politics has spun parents/grandparents so that we are rapidly failing youth - dare we admit this?

 which is also why as yet no global markets biggest organisation have purposes aligined to sustainability -trillion dollar auditing of purpose at global market sector level is one maths and media intervention that could just save us now; it has been suggested that at least 20 global market sectors will be reviewed over the next 4 weeks in new york as a first pilot of trillion dollar auditing 

my family's understanding is that 3 people alive today were designing  1970"economics" systems in line with community scale not big brother organisation designs
gifford pinchot eg intrapreneurship late 1970s
romano prodi co-signee of economist enetrepreneurial revolution 1976
klaua schwab

the first american to get this was president kennedy but he was assassinated one year into adapting this mindset

peter drucker was always consistent with these kinds of economically adaptable maps;
keynes last chapter of general theory set up the challenge in under 3 pages of how the world would get locked in exponentially by a handful of theorists whom legislators turned into rules monopolies for big get bigger not good get better

schumacher was on song but he didnt have any scaling models as far as i can see

Culturally what we are talking about is franciscan in the west - and many of the easts consciousness mindsets

I am sure there must have been many other human-community grounded designers but quite frankly macroeconomists since von neumanns time have in almost all cases got the wrong political end of every stick -as far as i can see

all reporting errors mine alone- i would like to learn what i have missed but my experience of global markets which i have studied maths of all my life is timing is crucial

there is no point in discussing any of the above in december 2022 ... imo
best chris washington dc +1 240 316 8157

appendix who's tech who
It is really hard to understand which hi tech  western genius billionnaires are which - to the extent that musk helps fund http://www.futureoflife.org he may be neater than eg bezos gates or the scary zuckenberg;

i believe jerry yang at stanford knows what most of the problems are east-west but as stanford's most connected dean he can help people like fei-fei li but he cant take a stand; it was yang that connected jack ma and soft banks maso son but both seem to have been sidelined by trump and covid; i thought schwarzman was on right path connecting mit oxford tsinghua but clearly trump has led american politics into destroying youth opportunities schwarzman graduates could have mediated; i dont understand bloomberg- he does at least use zoom since covid so you can see every leadership circle he plays with snd his impact through john hopkins might have helped slay covid but maybe not

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