EconomistDiary.com schools brief 14 (1964): in this 100th year of tele mediated by Switzerland's ITU, Global Connectivity takes a giant leap for womankind with satellite telecoms. Whilst this year's use is the first live olympics globally out of Tokyo, 1962's Consider Japan's Asia Rising models can now amplify, future of work may change around telecommuting; university grads will one day open source alumnisat.com (aiforgood networks without borders)..RSVP chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk to help co-edit maps of last 2025report.com - featuring Economist worldwideweb Journeys to sustainability first published 1984; inspired by neumann survey of what goods will peoples do with 100 times more tech per decade since dad norman meeting princeton 1951

Monday, October 10, 2022

 I have DAMTP MA in statistics and live in Bethesda. I would like to discuss 2025 report last edition with you. Dad. The Economist's Norman Macrae, and i first co-authored this in 1984. We argued for the hypothesis that edtech needed to be integral to millennials being first sustainability generation.   https://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/death-of-a-great-optimist/ We timelined web1, web2 likely arrival dates. Our main hope for 2020 that children identities would be supported by skills dashboard and digital personal lesson trainers has not yet materialised but can happen if educators and metaverse wizards get together. www.sdgmetaverseprize.org as first year round youth network addressing this is a start. My father's last 3 years began 16 trips where I sherpa's young graduate reportes to Bangladesh to understand the socio-economic miracle of Poorest Billion Village Womens nation building 1972-2022. While we were first shown round Bangladesh Xmas 2007 by Dr Yunus with whom we sampled 2000 of his social business partnership book, Fazle Abed and Brac University became the biggest data story I have ever researched. It makes 1980s global research for MIT market database, and subsequent research projects for Price WaterHouse Coopers and world leading Ad Agencies seem superficial - at least in terms of data for poverty alleviation and rural adaptation   and so 2015+ curricula of sdgs and edtech. Father had met Von Neumann on 1951 and been instructed to train journalists in the scoop - what good will peoples do with 100 times more tech every decade to the 2020s?.  It is not widely known that it was health and edtech alumni of Abed who at UNGA 2016's first annual review of sdg4 launched digital cooperation uniting UN:NY, Paris and Geneva (where tech, health and trade expertise has been twinned since 1945). This is the genesis of Guterres UN2 Digital Roadmapping https://www.un.org/techenvoy/content/ongoing-work. Embedding edtech data quality as fast as metaverse rolls out main explain our species future. Von Neumann;s daughter would also like to help- perhaps launching AI Hall of Fame - if suitable.  Chris Macrae +1 240 316 8157. My family also knows the main BBC nature broadcasters and (now) King Charles informal support through such channels as www.ashden.org, Royal Geographical Society and Youth Climate Champions as a British consular program allied to English language teaching. I can send you current publisher proposal for 2025 Report -last edition . But this is not much about me but connecting deep enough cooperation platforms east-west, south-north. Do you think, for example, Wolfram's mathematica ought to be involved? Chris Macrae +1 240 316 8157

Friday, October 7, 2022

 UNPECEDENTED INNOVATION

The 2020s is 10th decade humans have been connecting 100 times more tech per decade. Only this technology can resolve every extinction risk facing our species- notably the UN's SDGs announced in 2015. 

Its blind or bad application can also race us towards extinction. Indeed world war 2 was the earliest demonstration of himans are capable of very bad tech apps

The pace of tech change accelerated to 100 times multiplier around the GOATS of mathematics: Von Neumann , Einstein, Turing et al (see eg my father's biography of von neumann 1993 or a new one in 2022.

The physical power of Engineering (beyond horsepower) began around alumni of Glasgow U James Watt 1760. Fortunately Glasgow U also provide a great systems mapmaker Adam Smith  to write up both the last systems maps of the world before engines (moral sentiments) and the first 16 year summary of impacts of engines on humans (The Advantages of Nations). In June 2023, Galsgow's 265 celebration of Adam Smith moral sentiments is being branded microeducationsummit in celebration of first 15 yeras of studying billion asian womens human develoment economiscs inytroduced to 1000 Glasgwegains at 25oth moral sentiments convocation. This has inspired 2 new journals - new economics and social busienss -each includes a vibrant youth sub-editorial panel which is concerened with voing deep interdisvciplinary questions.

WORLDWIDE BIRTH OF TELE-ENGINEERS

 About a century after Watt's birth of engineering,  it was electricity's bridge between power and TELE (communications) hubbed out of central Europe which upped the rise of technology change. In 1865 Switzerland was chosen for the foundation of the ITU (the first tele product was telegraph but today we know T=Telecoms). For long distance even worldwide communications to work cooperation was needed around one evolving standard; and indeed place governments soon needed to licence out the commons of the airwaves. Most industries beginning with tele (telegraph, telephone, telex , television, telecoms, Satlloite1G-5G  ...;) or rad (radar, radio..) multiply each others consequences. Thats what connectivity does. The consequences include what mathamaticians can chaos. As Einstein's maths proved, nature is always interacting connections at more micro levels than man's science can figure. The Covid pandemic is just one illustration of why humans can no longer afford world eladers ignorant if the King Canute finding - the most powerful man in the world is no match for natures waves. Mathematically this means that professions which make judgements by bordering out extrenalities to their hypotheses are now compunding potentially terminal risks. Will transparency be brought to professions which historically societies gave monpoplot=y licences to conditional to Hippocratic Oath do no harm.

My father met Von Neumann in 1951 and was asked whether he could mentor weekly newpaper jourmalists at the Economist in the world most valuable question: what good will peoples connect with 100 times more tech per decade? Neumann advocated the century long timeline 1930s to 2020s. He worked night and day on positive possiblitiies such as computing between war's end 1945 and his death from nucliear induced cancer 1957. In a game of top 52 alumni to linkin updated annually at worldrecordjobs.com since 2008, Neumann remains an essential nomination for anyone involved with sustainability reality. We host this game as a survey we can learn 360 degree contributions from but Neumann is one of the true worldwide anchors to our hypothesis of what gravitates advancing the human lot 

Von Neumann clarified some specific challenges. First his generations of mathematicains wanted their keagcy to be goods not bads they had mainly spent their lives on in the nuclear arms race. Second it was computings new fusion that offered a chance for good to race agead of bad. Neumann clarified the opportuniy of good was way above zero sume models of huan exchnages. For examples when life critical knowhoo is shared and app's that multiplies value in use unlike consuming up things which is constrained to being at best a zrero sum game.

Neumann also clarified that expereiemntal access to 100 times more leaps would not be evenly distributed geographically. So would places open source good? Specifically Von Neumann notes show that he hoped that most patents with his new technologies would last a maximum of 6 months. His logic 6 months give such a partnership lead in networking value that if you are advancing good, you would not want more than 6 months patent protection

The irst 15 yeras that Economist journalists included NNeumann's questioninh=ng in what The Economist called a severe contest of leadership seemed to demostarte some amzing goods:

Alumni of Boralug were the first connectirs of a tech "crop science" that offered 10 times more local production of staple foods. Much of the Asian two thirds of the world's beings needed this knowhow to prevent starvation while they also tried to go beyond mostly being colonised. Deming showed the Jpanese that if a product eg cars depends on 4000 engineering parts contimois impmrovement can be optimally mapped around sme networks (eg 4000 innovatirs) than one comany trying to control each parts manufaturing innovation. By being the continous goodsd assembled at the epicentre of the parts networ, a company could generate far more value for itself and with small entrepreneurial startups. A twist to this idea came when Japan was also the epiebtre of the container revolution offering 10 times more efficieny to docking. Suddenlt transsborder win-win trading models emerged- see the map japan , korea, south, taiwan hk, singapore all gleefully recorded in The Economist from 1962's first survey Consider Japan. To dad who had spent his last days a s a teen navigatirr in allied bomber command Burma there was a particular joy that the epace umbrella around Jpan was becoming the epicentre of two win-win economic models that all Asia Rising needed to advance beyond subsietence living. The Economist called these rural keynesianism and Coastal Roadsters.

It was indeed a japnese order from a calculatpt manufacturedr that caused Intel to invent the programmable chip. Intel's Gordon Moore clarifies his company didnt want to become over dependednt on one chip design. Iyt was also Moore's Law that became the first publishe example of a tech industry committed to 100 time more icapability every decade.  The Legacy of Von Neumnn had by 1960 been grounded around 2 AI Labs: out of stanford (Inlel's region) facing the pacific and 70% of peoples whsoe world trade is shiped there and ouut of MIT facint the Atlantic around which about 25% of peoples trades are shipped. I have left 5% unclassified (eg those ldepending on arctic circle resources) though you can play with these numbers and in nuemma's logic they would need to inetract positively anyhow.

Kennedy had been the first worlld leader to joyfully offere future generation moon shts: 10+ year visions to celebarte the coming 100 fold tech apoplication too.


Meanwhile back at the birth of the United Nation was the digital twinning out of geneva of ITU and world multi-win trade mapping UNCTAD and world health while UN H in NY led policy making around such human goals as trust/safety, inclusion, rights and service of oublic goods.

Although the 1960s had been set up for potential mediation advances, a lot went wrong -assination of america's most passioate futiure eladers, the start of the cold war in which America and Russia were more interested in signing up dictatirs than seeing poorest places people sustainable growth. In my fathers case to distinguish mediation of economics from a new shirt-term numeroligist, he started ebcouarging Economist Journalists to debate the coming of globalisation around future hostirians and entrepreneurial revolution. 

to my family and friends the byptodut of satellite telcoms was far the most valauble connectir of 100 time more. telecommuiting was one idea reheradsed in the 1960s Economist. The importace of new media maximising life critical knowhow netwirking could be pivotal to Von Neumann alumni. Unfortunately this is not really how mass global television evolved. Futher more system choices Nixom made : taking the paer dolar off teh gold stanadrd, starting the expoenetial rise of colege fees were not conguent with helping next genrrations multiply the ultimate local good- ending poverty sowherever the next child is boirn she has a fair opportunity to thrive. 

In 1984, I hekped dad publish the first 2025 report- asking what the furst 2 web area would bring from 1990. As you can see from this robituary review by The Economist former science eidtor Viscoiunt Ridkey: futrure histirain friends timed the tech  consequences offered by web1,2 reasonable accurtely but many of society's most urgent sustainability goals have so far been overshot

In this regard what happened in 2016 is potentailly the greatest game chnager I have ever seen. One group reviweing the first year of sdg4 education reacted abnormally to the news that there was no chnace of achieving the goal unless a lot more fundraising was done. They asked what would happen if education was reponsible for connecting all the pardctitioners embedded in the Un branches starting with a fusison of gebeva's tech trade and health practice leaders with the headquarters policy making, yoiuth futures Unicef and UNESCO's associated remit out of paris with the oecd. What has happened so far is a playing board with 9 pieces for a compete revolution in government to empower service to the peopels instead of voicing over them. HAVE A LOOK ANS EE IF THERE ARE NYP;AYING PECES YOUR STUDENTS AND ETACERS, Prensnts and communities can appky to con veumanns challenge.

I interpret this as opening the door to devating 101 ways education can save us from extbiguisk=hing our next gerations. If we are going to do this we need to celebrate those who have found ways to help the very poorest leapfrog through waht can now be classified as the 5 eras of tele

people without ekecrticity people with electricity and tele but not digital 2-way webs

web1

web 2

wgat we are designing in 2020s web3 aka metverse; almots every expertise nay have a diferent name for blockchain deep dta innovations - so decentralised finance is one huge example. Whats intersting to me is to comile a premeier league tabvle of citiznes and inddeed rural vilage nwetorkers who see web3 and the ssutainabilitybgoals as last chnace opprtunities. Meanwhile instiyutions inside the UN likke its Uniceversity with 14 national branches in have become key investment areas eg by Jpapan which is into year 60 of being celebrated by enetrepreneurial revolution economists as an epicenhtre of asia rising models

Hong Kong Estonia Slovenia Mongolia (ITU shiterlansd parteners - since 1865 globl connecetiviyty

with einstein sinec 1920 intellectual cooperation

From 1945 UN ditgital twin with neighboring imapctsb of health and trade 

how 1g to 5g evolved from late 1970s

from 2003 3 monts in evey teay summit on infprmatio soevieties ie web 2 fy=utires

from 2018 ai for good as two of 9 revolutionary dynamics with edu digital coperation of UN digiral roadmappin; unlike wsis aiforgood sled leap to 24.7 zoom world

in 2022 itu with xprize had started first year round youth copetition sdgmetaverseprize.org

guterres has called for yeras 22-2--24 to host future summits and to make youjng er hallf of teh worlds voice equaly to the elders haf in asking what goods can we do next

Enter the leapfrog modelleyr whose 50 yeras work supported human develomen of 1 billaion asian vilage mothers and inspired 3 of the main royal families reponsible for mapping post-colonial reparations across asia UK Netherlads Japan

Have a look at 30 coperation mapped by frineds of the half century of leap frog work linkedin to 1 billion asian womens place building by one time royal duucy shell regional ceo Fazle Sbed

add in yunus testimony

-see ho were abed top 50mpartners at time of death including giterreres jim kim leader of the sdg4revolution band, abdul latif whose sponsorship ar=tb MIT turned rearch of abed worl into the nobel economisc field of 2019; see also diary of where debates on how tranformational can egove be - mongollia led 2 day zoom of that spet 2022; indonesia b=g20 and india g20 offere asia 3 first comers global stages for impacting chnage in what education does next

Tuesday, October 4, 2022

WHY PUBLISH LAST EDITION OF 2025 REPORT IN 2023
This futures search was first published in 1984. Our aim then was  to map an alternative scenario to the Orwellian Big Brother end game. Mathematically systems subjected to an intergenerational change force, such as ever increasing technology over a century, can be expected to spiral to one of two opposite states not some middle ground. This is definitely the case for impacts on nature's systems and has been argued by alumni of both Adam Smith and Keynes to apply to purposes of markets as human relationship exchanges 

Headline from Last Edition
2025 Good News/News –2020s most exciting time to be alive: We have all tech and human brains we need to prevent extinction if and only if these 3 systems exponential conflicts are sorted

3 systems in complete conflict

Money Men Systems

Human Development Economics

Nature Sustainability Economics
Put another way in 2020s there is 10 times more work that millennials need (deep learning) to be gravitating to  thriving communities than banking on GNP can reach. So, a prime reason for last edition of 2025 report is to peoples as multilaterals 2.0 to web3/metaverse/DAO/NFT -all of which tech is making prime time to design now

============================

Findings actually come from over 7 decades of journalism (originated at Economist led by my father Norman) . In 1951 dad met Von Neumann and asked to continuously survey Humanity’s most valuable question – what goods will peoples do  with 100 times more tech every decade?.
NB1  Von Neumann , Einstein and peers - maths' world  GOATS - had spent most of their Lives on "bads" – eg nuclear arm race. They wanted their legacy to be the opposite

NB2 Neumann was not predicting availability of 100 times more tech to all (eg from 1965 you can track who got access to moore's law 100 fold multiplier: mainly peoples linkedin to the place that soon branded itsel Silicon Valley). So would those with privileged first access attend to "digital divide" solutions not just rich peoples hi-tech services

NB3 Neumann had particular definition of good=mapping/designing way above zero sum exchanges. This aligns closely with Adam Smith’s moral sentiments and Keynes last chapter of General Theory (whose last class at Cambridge dad attended)

A most vital good of human development economics (implied by UN’s birth) is including Communities had been left out by engines/engineers in live saving Knowhow networks

Overall Neumann's question and concerns had particular relevance to my father as he spent his last days as teenage navigator allied bomber command Burma

A generation ahead of other economists,dade had the good fortune to have (google) maps in his head of what a mess had been made by colonial ear to Asia's world trade coastlines,

Indeed we could say the majority of the human race as at 1945 had been left out of all the benefits of engines since 1760 - multiply two thirds of humans who are Asian by the approximately 80% without access to engines as of 1945. They had been left ut of Glasgow's Engine power since 1760, then of electricity then of the "tele" coms across borders which started in 1865 with the International Telegraph Union with western nations chosen to assemble regularly in Switzerland

 Youth Generation best chance of applying 100 times more to sustainability goals and what was first called Digital Cooperation UN 2016 year 1 review NY UN HQ of why education sustainability goal need connections with tech , health, and trade all of whose Un experts hubbed out of Geneva. Since Engineer Guterres started his 10 year trem in 2017 this has become 9 interactive pieces of Digital Roadmapping UN2 and indeed benchmarking egov for good

JUSTIFICATION OF HEADLINE THAT 3 CONFLICTING SYSTEMS NEED MEDIATING (and references to alumni networks of world recordjobs.com which we started blogging after the subprime crisis of 2008 eg WRL Neumann Einstein Satoshi Gandhi Montessorri Borlaug ...)

During the 1950s, first decade of surveying 100 rimes more: two of the most positive reports from first decade of survey:

Kennedy announced decade long moon shot challenges as overall goal Energising ne(x)t gen

Father started annual surveys of what help did people need in different Nations- he was joyfully surprsied that his 1962 survey showed Japan was mapping two models relevant to Asian Peoples Development everywhere.


Rural Keynesianism – full rural employment – miraculously Borlaug alumni were open sourcing how villagers could locally produce up to 10 times more productivity with staples like rice. Up to half of Asians needed to app this knowhow (aka Green Revolution) to prevent starvation. In fact a billion Asian Tural mothers families linkedin around this franework between 1970 and 2020 - a revolution in aid and in population tersm the greatest economic miracle to date. See Footnote for more

Coastal tech cooperation- with something like a car’s 4000 parts instead of a company trying to manufacture every part, Deming suggested demanding continuous improvement from sme supply ntrworksContainerisation suddenly made it far more economic for Japan Korea Taiwan to win-win trade- soon this etended down the far east coastlinve via hong kong and Singapore. My the mid 1970s the Chinese Diaspora were becoming win-win traders in hi-tech; the big deal was when Japan agreed to share all its engineering knowhow with Tsinghua in Beijing.

The simplest maps of Billaion Rural womens advancement  in Tropical Asia comes from Bangladesh www,abedmooc.com
SHE-M*e*e*e 
where S=designing communities where women are at least as productive & safe as men; H=last mile health networking solutions- fotunately innovated in the early 1970s: the biggest life saving cure in tropics oral rehydration had zero cost but needed 100% action learning by mothers. E=  Education which is livelihood & accessible lifelong for students , teachers, community leaders cooperaing round urgent sustaiability challenges including data needed for tech apps 
M=Money e =energy for fumans ie food & water security; e=energy for machines; e=digital cooperation

Father covered these stories 1951-1990 in the Economist many downloadable at http://www.teachforsdgs.com

Monday, October 3, 2022

 could we linkin? - digital cooperation un became my favorite purppse sep 2016 after year 1 review of sdg4 at UN; the next day Jim Kim led connections between NY policy and ed and geneva health tech and trade- earlier that year DC was celebrated at Fazle Abed's 80th birthday party and after 16 visists by graduate journalists to assemble www.abedmooc.com .............................. its been an extraordinary 6 years since  -


DC UN and everywhere youth can webfree will also be main joyful story in my family's last 2025 report - first published as sustainability's web journey with Norman Macrae & economist journalists 1984- dad had met von neumann 1951 and been told to survey what good will peoples do with 100 times more tech every decade... when i search linked in for DC UN - you come top! Congrats. Whilst in DC New York my favorite monthly meeting space. Fantastic UN envoy #digitaglobal2022 with mongolia last month https://twitter.com/abedmooc/status/1566738765221076993 chris macrae www.economistdiary.com whatsapp +1 240 316 8157

 Whilst i believe this article on the UN's loss of authority on peace is unfair to Guterres(whose term started at the same time as trumpism polluted affairs of world and citizenry) its point on why no new multilaterals especially with fall of berlin wall is on-song

after the end of the cold war the United States, finding itself in the position of hyperpower, did not want to be trammelled by any unnecessary global rules. No new regional—much less global—organisations were created, save for the rather inconsequential European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. This is in contrast to what happened after the first and second world wars, as with the foundation of the League of Nations and UN respectively.

What is more, UN rules were openly violated. After the end of the cold war, the US and its allies attacked five countries on four continents without UN authorisation: Panama, Serbia, Afghanistan, Iraq (the second war) and Libya. (For Libya, there was a UN Security Council resolution but its mandate of civilian protection was exceeded by the overthrow of the regime.) France and the United Kingdom, also veto-wielding members of the Security Council, participated in most of these violations of the UN Charter, even if France refused to go to war against Iraq. And Russia attacked Georgia and Ukraine (the latter twice).

Thus these four permanent members broke the charter eight times. Among the permanent members, only China did not do so. The UN as a collective-security organisation, whose primary duty is to protect the territorial integrity of its members, has failed in that role—simply by being ignored by the most powerful states.